I’ve stayed silent since the big financial crisis went worldwide because I didn’t really know how to play it or how badly IBM would be hurt, but results this week were surprisingly unaffected. The NYTimes has a nice blg post covering the analyst call. Here’s the main point:

Only 7 percent of the company’s revenue comes from financial services companies in the United States, he said. Then he showed analysts a chart of the 20 most embattled institutions worldwide, as listed in a New York Times graphic (also included in this earnings presentation). I.B.M. did business with only half of those, he said, and they represented about 1 percent of the company’s revenue. (”There’s this perception that we’re very exposed,” Mr. Loughridge explained later, in the interview. “But it’s not that big and not that much of a problem.”)

I wasn’t concerned when things seemed like they were mostly hurting the US market because IBM has so much business abroad, but then everywhere else went south. Loughridge seems to believe (or at least says) that IBM wont be touched. I think that a big part of IBM’s strong earnings has been the weak dollar. It’s easy to grow earnings if all you need to do is convert those Euros or Yen into dollars. With the dollar rising, mostly due to everyone else tanking too, IBM is going to have some tough comparisons for the next 4 quarters. I don’t really know how things will go, and I don’t know of anyplace else to put my money, but I’m skeptical about current earnings projections given currency trends.